AI Impacts

Answering decision-relevant questions about the future of artificial intelligence.

AI Impacts is a nonprofit organization (fiscally sponsored by MIRI) investigating decision-relevant questions about the future of artificial intelligence. Their work has and continues to influence my outlook on how and when advanced AI will develop, and I often see researchers I collaborate with cite their work in conversations. Notable recent output includes an interview series around reasons why beneficial AI may be developed "by default" and continued work on examples of discontinuous progress.

I would characterize much of AI Impacts' research as things that are fairly obvious to look into but which, surprisingly, no one else has. In part this is because their research is often secondary, summarizing relevant existing sources, and interdisciplinary -- both of which are under-incentivized in academia. Choosing the right questions to investigate also requires considerable skill and familiarity with AI research.

Overall, I would be excited to see more research into better understanding how AI will develop in the future. This research can help funders to decide which projects to support (and when), and researchers to select an impactful research agenda. We are pleased to support AI Impacts' work in this space, and hope this research field will continue to grow.

We awarded a grant of $75,000, approximately one fifth of the AI Impacts budget. We do not expect sharply diminishing returns, so it is likely that at the margin, additional funding to AI Impacts would continue to be valuable. When funding established organizations, we often try to contribute a "fair share" of organizations' budgets based on the Fund's overall share of the funding landscape. This aids coordination with other donors and encourages organizations to obtain funding from diverse sources (which reduces the risk of financial issues if one source becomes unavailable).

(Recusal note: Due to working as a contractor for AI Impacts, Asya Bergal recused herself from the discussion and voting surrounding this grant.)