Rubi Hudson

**Main points in favor of this grant**

I am excited about more work along the lines of the existing "Incentivizing honest performative predictions with proper scoring rules" paper. I think that there are serious safety problems surrounding predictors that select their predictions to influence the world in such a way as to make those predictions true ("self-fulfilling prophecies") and I am excited about this work as a way to discover mechanisms for dealing with those sorts of problems. "Conditioning Predictive Models" discusses these sorts of issues in more detail. Rubi is a great person to work on this as he was an author on both of those papers.

**Donor's main reservations**

I think my main reservations here are just around Rubi's opportunity costs, though I think this is reasonably exciting work and I trust Rubi to make a good judgement about what he should be spending his time working on. The most likely failure mode here would probably be that the additional work here doesn't turn up anything else new or interesting that wasn't already surfaced in the "Incentivizing honest performative predictions with proper scoring rules" paper.

**Process for deciding amount**

I think that $33k is a reasonable amount given the timeframe and work.

**Conflicts of interest**

Rubi was a previous mentee of mine in SERI MATS and a coauthor of mine on "Conditioning Predictive Models."