AI Futures Project

Of all the ‘shut up and take my money’ applications in the 2024 round where I didn’t have a conflict of interest, even before I got to participate in their tabletop wargame exercise, I judged this the most ‘shut up and take my money’-ist. At The Curve, I got to participate in the exercise and participate in discussions around it, I’ve since done several more, and I’m now even more confident this is an excellent pick.

I continue to think it is a super strong case for retroactive funding as well. Daniel walked away from OpenAI, and what looked to be most of his net worth, to preserve his right to speak up. That led to us finally allowing others at OpenAI to speak up as well.

This is how he wants to speak up, and try to influence what is to come, based on what he knows. I don’t know if it would have been my move, but the move makes a lot of sense, and it has already paid off big. AI 2027 was read by the Vice President, who took it seriously, along with many others, and greatly informed the conversation. I believe the discourse is much improved as a result, and the possibility space has improved.

Note that they are comfortably funded through the medium term via private donations and their recent SFF grant.

Donate through every.org.

I don't believe AI 2027 will be my comparative advantage as a regranter, but I think AI 2027 is great, they're an excellent place to donate money, and I wanted to put my money where my mouth is with a token donation.

I was very impressed with AI 2027. While I don't agree with all of the assumptions, and it's substantially faster than I predict, I found it scarily plausible. It was very productive for concretising my own thoughts and making me more aware of key considerations, for example, whether an AI will try to align its successor. I think this kind of writing is valuable and I would love to see more.

It also seems to have been very well received publicly (much more so than I expected), getting a ton of attention while being much higher quality than the messages that many people may have previously been exposed to. The team has an excellent track record, and I think the success of AI 2027 gives them significant momentum, in addition to Daniel's profile and positive reputation as a whistleblower who tried to walk away from large amounts of money, so it's plausible to me that they can get a good amount of public/policy attention. Though I would be much more optimistic about this if they hired someone with substantial policy/lobbying experience.

While I don't expect to agree with the team on everything, I broadly think they have good judgment, care about the correct things, and will do things that are valuable and helpful. I view this donation and endorsement as a bet on the team and their future judgment, more so than any specific future plan.