wasabipesto

**Main points in favor of this grant**

• I think prediction markets are a great forecasting mechanism and accurate forecasts are an essential component of good decision-making. I regularly consult Manifold, Metaculus, etc. for decision-relevant forecasts. Establishing the accuracy of these platforms seems crucial for widespread adoption of prediction markets in institutional decision-making.
• I’m excited by the potential for Calibration City to track the accuracy of AI-specific forecasts, to aid AI safety and improve planning for transformative AI. I strongly encourage wasabipesto to create an interface tracking the accuracies of predictions about AI capabilities and AGI company developments.

**Donor's main reservations**

• It’s possible that this tool doesn’t increase trust or uptake of prediction markets in decision-making because the interface is too abstract or concepts are too abstract. However, even so, this might prove useful to some individual decision makers or research projects.
• It’s possible that the AI questions I am most interested in calibrating on belong to a class of long-horizon predictions that is not well-represented by the calibration of short-horizon, closed markets.

**Process for deciding amount**

I decided to fund this project $2k somewhat arbitrarily. I wanted to leave room for other donors and I didn’t view it as impactful in expectation as other $5k+ projects I’ve funded.

**Conflicts of interest**

I don't believe there are any conflicts of interest to declare.