Nuño Sempere

Conducting independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term future.

This grant is for Nuño to do a year of independent research. Nuño will be working with Phil Trammell (of the Global Priorities Institute at the University of Oxford) on philanthropic timing research and Ozzie Gooen (of the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute) on forecasting research.

We are most optimistic about Nuño's work on philanthropic timing, which is a continuation of the work he already started as a summer research fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute. This work models the optimal allocation of capital for a social movement between direct spending, investment, and movement building, as well as the optimal allocation of labor between direct workers, money earners, and movement builders. Nuño received positive references, particularly from Phil Trammell (who thought this work could be a valuable extension of his own past work on patient philanthropy).

This continues to run, you can keep track at https://blog.sentinel-team.org. We also have a weekly private project update mailing list to which I'm happy to add people with whom I have some rapport.

One important development has been getting a cofounder, Rai Sur (rai.dev) to complement my skillset; he's been working out great.

I think that RCG's object-level work is somewhat valuable, and also that they could greatly contribute to making the Spanish and Latin-American EA community become stronger. I think one could make an argument that this doesn't exceed some funding bar, but ultimately it doesn't go through.

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Support Riesgos Catastroficos Globales, Dec 2023

I think this project is my bar for funding. If I don't find other projects I'm as excited by, I'm planning to donate my remaining balance to it.

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Support Riesgos Catastroficos Globales, Dec 2023

I continue to be excited about RCGs and its role in the EA Spain/LatAm communities.

I was waiting until end of year to see if I found more promising options. I was considering APART (https://manifund.org/projects/help-apart-expand-global-ai-safety-research), but I don't think I'll have time to evaluate it in more depth; still, I've reserved some of my funds potentially for it.

Main points in favor of this grant

• Project has some value, may have influenced organizations like Charity Entrepreneurship
• Project has some learning value as well

Donor's main reservations

• None.

Process for deciding amount

• Negotiation with project lead based on expected number of hours.

Conflicts of interest

• None

I feel that the project could be potentially valuable, and I hope Marcel will be a bit more ambitious/have a bit more runway and leeway. I feel that there could be room for more funding, but I'd want some specific commitments in exchange.

Funding this. I like the lumenator part, but I particularly like the more ambitious life trajectory point.

On your application, you mention:

returning the money left if I decided that this was not a good idea anymore

Please consider not doing this; rather, please either pivot to a better opportunity or keep it until a good opportunity arises.