Logan McNichols

individual

AI safety fieldbuildingAI safety meta

Grants over time

$3,200

100%

Oliver Habryka · Long-Term Future Fund · full post · Aug 18, 2022

$3,200 · Funding to pay participants to test a forecasting training program

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The core principle of the program is to realistically simulate normal forecasting, but on questions which have already been resolved (backcasting). This creates the possibility of rapid feedback. The answer can be revealed immediately after a backcast is made, whereas forecasts are often made on questions which take months or years to resolve. The fundamental challenge of backcasting is gathering information without gaining an unfair advantage or accidentally stumbling on the answer. This project addresses the challenge in a simple way: by forming teams of two, an information gatherer and a forecaster.
Since this was a small grant, we didn’t evaluate this grant in a lot of depth. The basic idea seemed reasonable to me, and seemed like it might indeed improve training for people who want to get better at forecasting.

Date ↓	Funder	Via	Amount	Cause	Source	Purpose
Oct 2021	Long-Term Future Fund	EA Funds	$3,200	Training pipelines, Strategy & forecasting	ea_funds	Funding to pay participants to test a forecasting training program