individual · Manifund
Technical AI safety research
| Thomas Larsen | $40,000 | 50% | 1 |
| Lauren Mangla | $30,000 | 37% | 1 |
| Ryan Kidd | $10,000 | 12% | 1 |
| Matīss Apinis | $50 | 0% | 1 |
Thomas Larsen · Manifund · full post · Jan 1, 2026
Acausal research and interventions, Jun 2025
Read more ▾Show less ▴I think this is very promising. This team seems to have some of the people who have the clearest thoughts in the world about acausal interactions. I've asked several people who I trust a lot in this space and gotten universally positive references about the team.
My main concern is that thinking about acausal interactions is extremely difficult (meaning that zero progress is somewhat likely) and sign uncertain (so, even if they did make progress, it's not clear this would be net helpful). Overall, my view is that it still seems good to have some people working on this, and I trust this team in particular to be thoughtful about the tradeoffs.
Also, this type of work doesn't get funded by OP.
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Acausal research and interventions, Jan 2026
Fewer people have donated to this than I thought, so I am donating my remaining regranting budget here.
| Date ↓ | Funder | Via | Amount | Cause | Source | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | Thomas Larsen | Manifund | $40,000 | Foundations | manifund | Acausal research and interventions |
| Aug 11, 2025 | Matīss Apinis | Manifund | $50 | Foundations | manifund | Acausal research and interventions |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Ryan Kidd | Manifund | $10,000 | Foundations | manifund | Acausal research and interventions |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Lauren Mangla | Manifund | $30,000 | Foundations | manifund | Acausal research and interventions |